Methodology
How we measure civilization's proximity to irreversible AI-driven structural transformation
Overview
The Human Index combines seven distinct domain indices into a single Civilization Stress score. Each domain captures a critical aspect of societal stability in the face of transformative AI adoption.
Rather than speculating about future scenarios, we measure current real-world data points that correlate with structural fragility. Our methodology is transparent, reproducible, and updated weekly.
The Seven Domains
AI Work Displacement
25% weightTracks automation exposure of current jobs based on task decomposition, wage levels, and skill substitutability. Data sources: O*NET, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Glassdoor.
Income Inequality
18% weightMeasures income and wealth concentration, wage stagnation, and asset appreciation gaps. Data sources: World Inequality Database, IRS, Federal Reserve.
Social Unrest
15% weightMonitors labor strikes, protests, and civic participation indicators. Data sources: IPSOS surveys, labor department filings, protest tracking.
Institutional Decay
12% weightTracks institutional trust, government effectiveness, and functional capacity. Data sources: Pew Research, World Bank, Congressional effectiveness metrics.
Social Wellbeing
12% weightMeasures mental health indicators, substance use, suicide rates, and life satisfaction. Data sources: CDC, SAMHSA, OECD.
Policy Response
10% weightAssesses policy responsiveness to emerging displacement challenges. Data sources: Legislative tracking, regulation analysis, expert assessment.
Public Sentiment
8% weightAnalyzes public discourse and sentiment toward AI, technology, and economic systems. Data sources: Social media analysis, news sentiment, surveys.
Exposure Bands
LOW (0-25)
Minimal structural stress. Institutional capacity strong, jobs relatively secure, income distribution stable.
MODERATE (26-45)
Growing tensions emerging. Some job displacement beginning, policy lag evident, social cohesion fraying at edges.
ELEVATED (46-65)
Significant stress indicators. Widespread displacement anxiety, institutional erosion, increasing social fragmentation.
HIGH (66-80)
Substantial system stress. Institutional failures emerging, large-scale displacement, social unrest widespread.
CRITICAL (81-100)
Structural transformation underway. System capacity overwhelmed, cascading failures across domains, irreversible change in progress.
Primary Data Sources
- •Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Employment data
- •O*NET Database - Task-level job exposure analysis
- •Federal Reserve - Income and wealth distribution
- •World Bank - Institutional quality metrics
- •CDC / SAMHSA - Mental health and wellbeing indicators
- •Pew Research Center - Public sentiment and trust
- •Labor Department - Strike and protest filings
Important Disclaimers
- ⚠The Human Index is based on model estimates and historical correlations. Future outcomes are inherently uncertain.
- ⚠Individual exposure scores are probabilistic estimates, not predictions. Many factors influence personal outcomes.
- ⚠This is not investment, career, or financial advice. Consult qualified professionals for personal decisions.
- ⚠Data is subject to revision as sources are updated. Historical scores may be recalculated with new information.